Decision-Making Map
Principles
Principles guide behavior and judgment. Adopted principles form the current Decision-Making Map.
Analyze Macro By Layering Productivity And Debt Cycles
When judging macro conditions, separate long-run productivity growth from the short-term and long-term debt cycles, then look at how they overlap. Use this as a first-pass macro map: ask whether the visible movement...
adopted · macro-analysis, capital-allocation
Balance Deflationary And Inflationary Deleveraging Tools
In a deleveraging, balance spending cuts, debt reduction, wealth transfers, and money creation so debt burdens fall without collapse or excessive inflation. Use this when judging policy response during a debt-burden...
adopted · policy
Distinguish Productive Credit From Consumptive Credit
Judge credit by whether it increases future income enough to service the debt. Use this when evaluating borrowing, investment, leverage, or policy stimulus. Do not assume "productive" from stated intent alone. The...
adopted · general, capital-allocation, policy
Keep Debt Growth Below Income Growth
Do not let debt rise faster than income for long, because rising debt burdens eventually constrain spending, creditworthiness, and stability. Use this when judging households, companies, governments, sectors, or...
adopted · general, capital-allocation, policy
Keep Income Growth Supported By Productivity
Do not treat income growth as healthy when it persistently outruns productivity growth. Use this when judging whether an expansion is sustainable or merely supported by credit, asset prices, policy stimulus, or...
adopted · macro-analysis, capital-allocation, policy
Raise Productivity For Long-Run Progress
Prioritize raising productivity because long-run living standards depend on producing more value, not merely borrowing or spending more. Use this when distinguishing durable improvement from temporary financial...
adopted · general, policy, entrepreneurship, operations